The Enduring Arguments for Brexit

A decade has passed since the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, a decision that continues to shape the nation's political and economic landscape. While numerous polls suggest a growing regret among the British populace regarding Brexit, a significant number of individuals maintain that the arguments for departing the bloc remain valid and compelling. Robert Tombs, a professor at the University of Cambridge and a vocal proponent of Brexit, asserts that the core justifications for leaving—namely sovereignty, democracy, and regaining control—are as relevant today as they were in 2016.

The concept of 'control' served as a cornerstone of the 'Leave' campaign. Advocates emphasized the need for greater autonomy over immigration policies, aiming to secure national borders from what they perceived as external supranational influences. Furthermore, a central tenet was the reclamation of sovereignty from the EU, often characterized by Brexit supporters as an insular and detached elite, to be returned directly to the British people. Professor Tombs highlighted Britain's historical discomfort within the EU, noting that other member states, such as Greece and Italy, also appear to harbor dissatisfactions. He further posited that the UK's historical and cultural ties have often been stronger with non-EU, particularly English-speaking, nations than with its European counterparts.

A History of Discord: UK-EU Relations

The referendum marked the culmination of over four decades of an often tumultuous relationship between the UK and the European project. From Britain's initial entry in the 1970s until its eventual departure, the association was frequently fraught with tension. Numerous moments of crisis punctuated this period, including deep ideological divisions within the dominant Conservative Party concerning EU membership. Other significant flashpoints included the 1992 financial crisis, colloquially known as 'Black Wednesday,' when the UK struggled to maintain the pound's position within the European Exchange Rate Mechanism, and the contentious debates surrounding the Maastricht Treaty.

The 'Europe question' evolved into a fundamental cleavage in British politics, a divide that never fully healed and ultimately precipitated the Brexit vote. Professor Tombs recalled that the UK maintained an 'Atlanticist' orientation even upon joining the EU, a sentiment echoed by former French President Charles DeGaulle, who observed Britain's tendency to remain somewhat apart. Those who continue to champion Brexit often attribute any perceived failures or missed opportunities post-departure to successive British governments, arguing that they have not adequately leveraged the newfound freedoms gained from leaving the bloc. They also contend that many of the dire predictions made by the 'Remain' campaign, often labeled 'project fear,' have not materialized.

Immigration and Unfulfilled Expectations

A key aspiration for many pro-Brexit Britons was a reduction in immigration levels. During the run-up to the referendum, Nigel Farage, then leader of UKIP and subsequently the Reform Party, faced considerable criticism for his 'Breaking Point' poster, which depicted Syrian refugees at the Croatia-Slovenia border, implying a mass influx into the UK. Ironically, despite the assurances offered by the 'Leave' campaign, net immigration to the UK significantly increased after Brexit. This surge, dubbed the 'Boriswave' by some right-wing critics in reference to former Prime Minister Boris Johnson's administration, saw net migration rise from approximately 224,000 in 2019 to over 600,000 in 2022, further escalating to 906,000 in 2023—a 302 percent increase.

David Goodhart, head of demography, immigration, and integration at the Policy Exchange think tank, acknowledged, "We did regain control over immigration, but the point is we used that freedom to expand it." He attributed this outcome to the UK's failure to effectively adapt to a post-Brexit world. The UK officially withdrew from the EU on January 31, 2020, four and a half years after the referendum. Goodhart lamented the protracted internal debates over the desired form of Brexit, stating that Johnson, who campaigned on the promise of 'getting Brexit done,' ultimately 'blew it.' He also observed that individuals who felt marginalized by the British political system before the referendum feel no more included now, with the COVID-19 pandemic, the conflict in Ukraine, and domestic political instability exacerbating social anxieties.

Economic Realities and Future Prospects

While Brexit has not delivered the economic boom promised by some 'Leave' campaigners, it has also not triggered the catastrophic economic downturn predicted by some 'Remain' proponents. Forecasts of an immediate recession, widespread job losses, and a mass exodus of talent from the UK's vital financial services sector did not fully materialize. Goodhart noted, "Brexit has not been the economic disaster many claimed. In fact, it's actually had remarkably little impact," attributing this in part to broader global economic downturns. He also pointed to potential benefits derived from the UK's separation from the EU, which he described as inherently conservative and regulatory. He cited advancements in sectors like fintech and gene editing within the UK, suggesting that such progress might have been more challenging to achieve within the EU framework.

Some argue that any shortfall in post-Brexit growth is not due to Brexit itself, but rather to successive UK governments' reluctance to sufficiently reduce regulation and liberalize the British economy. Kristian Niemietz, editorial director at the Institute of Economic Affairs, an organization whose members largely advocated for leaving the EU, remarked that "free-market Brexiteers thought that Brexit was likely to be followed by liberalisations. Free-market remainers thought that a liberalising Brexit was possible, but unlikely." A decade on, while some liberalizations have occurred, Niemietz believes the UK has been "too timid to cancel out the disruptions caused by Brexit." He cited new trade deals, which would have been impossible as an EU member, and mild deregulation in areas like gene editing as indicative of opportunities yet to be fully capitalized upon. For many steadfast Brexit supporters, the UK's resilience in the face of dire predictions stands as a testament to their decision. Looking ahead, some ponder whether other European nations might eventually eye a similar path. Professor Tombs highlighted that the UK was unique in being afforded the choice to leave, referencing recent comments by French President Emmanuel Macron, who conceded that the French public might choose to leave the EU if given the opportunity. "No one else in Europe has been given the choice," Tombs concluded, "We were."

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