National Alert Issued Ahead of Monsoon Season
Pakistan's National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued a comprehensive nationwide alert, signaling a critical weather period for the country. The warning, released on Sunday, highlights the imminent threat of thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and urban flooding across various regions. Furthermore, the northern areas face an elevated risk of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) within the next 12 to 24 hours. This proactive measure comes as Pakistan prepares for what is projected to be its fourth consecutive year of intense monsoon activity, expected to commence later this month.
The alert specifically identified several areas as particularly vulnerable to potential climate-related disasters. These include the Hunza and Skardu regions within the mountainous Gilgit-Baltistan in the north, as well as parts of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in the northwest. Urban centers are also on high alert, with authorities warning of possible flooding in the capital, Islamabad, and other major cities such as Rawalpindi and its surrounding areas. In response, provincial and district administrations have been instructed to maintain high vigilance and ensure that drainage systems are clear and fully operational.
The Persistent Threat of Melting Glaciers and Climate Change
Pakistan's vulnerability to extreme weather events has been starkly demonstrated in recent years. The monsoon rains of the previous year resulted in over 1,000 fatalities, including 275 children, and displaced approximately three million people from their homes. However, it was the catastrophic floods of 2022 that truly brought Pakistan to global attention concerning the climate crisis. These historic floods, primarily exacerbated by melting glaciers, submerged nearly a third of the country, underscoring the severe impact of climate change on a nation that contributes less than one percent of global emissions but ranks among the top five most affected countries.
The Gilgit-Baltistan region, in particular, has experienced alarming temperature increases, with a record high of 48.5 degrees Celsius (119.3 degrees Fahrenheit) recorded this year, surpassing a 1971 benchmark. Such extreme heat accelerates glacial melt, leading to the swelling and bursting of glacial lakes across this ecologically sensitive area. Pakistan is home to an estimated 13,000 glaciers, the largest concentration outside the polar icecaps, making it highly susceptible to the effects of global warming.
According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), the melting glaciers in Pakistan's Hindu Kush, Himalayas, and Karakoram mountain ranges have created over 3,000 glacial lakes in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Of these, 33 have been identified as highly vulnerable to hazardous outbursts, posing a direct threat to more than 7.1 million people residing downstream. GLOFs are particularly destructive, capable of releasing millions of cubic meters of water and debris within hours, obliterating infrastructure such as bridges, farmlands, and entire communities.
Challenges in Early Warning Systems and Funding
In an effort to mitigate these risks, Pakistan, in collaboration with the UNDP, launched the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Reduction project (GLOF-II) in 2017. This initiative focused on enhancing early warning systems, constructing flood protection infrastructure, and fostering community-based disaster preparedness across 24 valleys in 15 districts of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
However, Zakir Hussain, Director General of the Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority, highlighted to Al Jazeera that the actual coverage and effectiveness of Pakistan's early warning infrastructure are often misunderstood. He clarified that the GLOF-II project specifically targeted only 16 selected valleys, not the entirety of Gilgit-Baltistan, and even within these valleys, only a limited number of sites were covered. Hussain pointed out that many areas severely impacted in 2025, including Ghizer, Diamer, and parts of Hunza, lacked any early warning systems whatsoever.
“The problem there was the absence of coverage altogether,” Hussain stated. “The one exception is Shishper in Hunza valley. That is the single case where an early warning system was in place but did not generate a warning despite the glacier changing its behaviour. In the other instances, these are very different problems, and we should be clear about the distinction.”
The devastating floods of 2022 remain a stark reminder of the potential scale of climate disasters in Pakistan. These floods claimed nearly 1,700 lives, displaced over 30 million people, caused an estimated $14.8 billion in property damage, and resulted in a $15.2 billion loss to Pakistan's gross domestic product. A donor conference held in Geneva in January 2023 saw pledges of approximately $11 billion from various countries and international financial institutions for flood recovery efforts. Nevertheless, according to the UN's humanitarian coordination agency, OCHA, only about $4.5 billion had been delivered by June 2025, primarily allocated to housing, transport, and flood risk management projects.
Hussain directly attributed this shortfall to a lack of responsibility from donor parties. He emphasized that the failure to transfer funds, technology, and build capacity in countries like Pakistan, which bear the brunt of carbon emissions from developed nations, is a significant concern. Compounding Pakistan's vulnerability, he added, is not only inadequate infrastructure but also a noticeable lack of coordination among various institutions. “There is no single authoritative source of truth,” Hussain explained, noting that conflicting information between institutions creates administrative hurdles and breakdowns in response. He stressed the urgent need for better integration of forecasting with response metrics to enhance overall disaster preparedness and management.
Source: Original Article
