The Significance of Makerfield's By-Election

The constituency of Makerfield in northwest England is currently at the heart of British political discourse. A by-election scheduled for Thursday is poised to do more than simply elect a new Member of Parliament; it carries the potential to reshape the leadership landscape of the Labour Party and underscore the increasing presence of the far-right in the UK. This electoral event was initiated last month following the resignation of the previous MP, Josh Simons, specifically to enable Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to contest the seat. Should Burnham secure a victory, his stated intention is to challenge current UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer for leadership of the Labour Party.

Starmer is facing considerable pressure to step down, largely due to a series of unfavorable council election outcomes last month and the recent resignations of Secretary of State for Defence John Healey and Armed Forces Minister Al Carns, both citing concerns over the United Kingdom's defense budget. Complicating Burnham's path to the Labour leadership is Robert Kenyon, the far-right Reform UK candidate, whose campaign has been embroiled in controversy regarding alleged sexist and misogynistic social media posts. Despite these issues, Kenyon remains a competitive contender in the polls. Reform UK secured second place in Makerfield in the last general election, indicating a substantial challenge to Labour, which has historically held this seat since its establishment in 1983. This by-election offers a crucial insight into the current political climate, with implications that extend far beyond the local constituency.

The Catalyst for the By-Election

Despite a decisive victory in the 2024 general election, Labour's popularity has seen a significant decline over the past two years. Concurrently, the anti-immigration Reform UK party has experienced a surge in support. The council elections last month saw Reform UK gain hundreds of council seats at Labour's expense, with Labour losing nearly 1,500 local council seats while Reform expanded its presence from approximately 100 to 1,450 seats.

From the right, Labour's rhetoric on immigration has not succeeded in curbing support for Reform UK, which continues to attract both former Conservative voters and segments of Labour's traditional working-class base, particularly in northern England. On the left, many voters disillusioned by Starmer's stance on Israel and cuts to welfare provisions have gravitated towards the Green Party. According to Ipsos polling, Starmer is currently the most unpopular prime minister since voter surveys began in the late 1970s. As internal tensions within Labour have escalated, Andy Burnham has consistently emerged as a preferred alternative to Starmer among party members. Recent polling suggests Starmer would likely defeat most potential challengers in a leadership contest, with Burnham being a notable exception. As Mayor of Manchester, Burnham is not currently an MP, which precludes him from standing for the Labour Party leadership. Earlier this year, his attempt to stand for Parliament in another by-election in Gorton and Denton was blocked, a seat Labour subsequently lost to the Green Party. However, as pressure on the prime minister intensifies, Labour's National Executive Committee has shown increasing willingness to allow Burnham to seek an MP position again.

Upon announcing his resignation as Makerfield MP after the council elections, Josh Simons articulated that Labour was heading towards a divisive leadership contest marked by 'no hope, no energy that anything would change.' He highlighted Makerfield as Andy Burnham's home for 25 years, stating the mayor was 'coming home.' Simons concluded, 'Labour needs to change and the whole government needs to change.'

Key Candidates and Their Platforms

Labour: Andy Burnham

Andy Burnham currently holds the popular position of Mayor of Greater Manchester. Prior to this, he served in Westminster, holding several cabinet roles under former Labour prime ministers Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. As mayor, Burnham has cultivated a reputation as one of Labour's most recognizable politicians, benefiting from his relative distance from Westminster. He advocates for 'Manchesterism,' a policy approach that blends pro-business strategies to attract investment with the reintegration of essential services under public control. Known by some supporters as the 'King of the North,' Burnham gained national recognition for challenging the Conservative government during the COVID-19 pandemic and for his sustained campaign for justice for the victims of the Hillsborough disaster.

His appeal to Labour's working-class base in the north of England has led some party members to view him as Labour's strongest candidate for reclaiming the 'Red Wall' – former industrial constituencies in northern England that have increasingly shifted towards Reform UK. Political commentator Aaron Bastani noted that Burnham's personal reputation 'makes a difference' and that he represents Labour's best chance against Reform UK. 'A lot of Reform voters actually like him. Many people have a good word to say about him, and he’s been a politician in the area for 25 years.' However, Bastani also pointed out that some voters still associate him with Labour as the party of government, stating, 'Many Reform voters see Labour as the party that backed the Iraq war, and there’s a deep sense of disillusionment with the political establishment… What’s interesting is that some Reform voters were making left-wing criticisms of Burnham, such as the cuts to winter fuel payments and broader dissatisfaction with the government’s direction.'

Reform UK: Robert Kenyon

Challenging Burnham is Reform UK's Robert Kenyon, a plumber by profession, often referred to in the media as 'the plucky plumber.' He represents a party whose rapid ascent and anti-immigrant stance have significantly altered Britain's political landscape. Reform UK's growth has largely been driven by Nigel Farage, a key figure in Brexit, whose party has capitalized on the dwindling support for the former ruling Conservative Party. Numerous prominent Conservative figures have defected to Reform in recent months. This has enabled Reform to attract both traditional right-wing voters and some former Labour supporters, primarily through a platform that attributes local grievances to migration.

Bastani explained, 'For many voters, the proliferation of vape shops and takeaways on high streets has become a shorthand for a sense of decline. It’s often one of the first things people talk about when discussing immigration and changes to their local area. The concern isn’t really about vape shops themselves – they’re seen as visible symbols of a declining economic model, the loss of local identity and a feeling that places are deteriorating.' However, Bastani described Kenyon as 'unimpressive.' His campaign has been overshadowed by allegations related to historical social media activity. The anti-extremism group HOPE not hate publicized posts attributed to Kenyon, which included COVID-19 conspiracy theories, endorsements of sexualized comments about television presenter Carol Vorderman, and remarks concerning female rugby players. The group also highlighted comments on an online forum where Kenyon allegedly described himself as sexist and suggested women make false rape allegations to obtain abortions.

Restore Britain: Rebecca Shepherd

Adding another layer to the contest is Restore Britain, a new far-right party founded by former Reform UK MP Rupert Lowe. Lowe contends that Reform UK has become too moderate and is no longer sufficiently stringent on combating undocumented immigration. Lowe, a former Reform member, was suspended by the party in March 2025 after publicly criticizing leader Nigel Farage and was later expelled following allegations of workplace bullying and complaints from female staff, which he denies. Since its launch less than four months ago, Restore Britain claims to have amassed over 96,000 members and 13 councillors, many of whom are former Reform figures. If a significant portion of these voters shifts from Reform UK, it could potentially reduce Reform's share of the vote enough to benefit Labour.

Conservative: Michael Winstanley

Michael Winstanley, the former mayor of Wigan, is standing as the candidate for the Conservative Party. He was elected as a councillor for the Orrell ward in 2000 and served for 16 years. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch lauded Winstanley as 'an excellent champion of the area having lived in, worked in and represented the local community for years.' However, observers do not anticipate a strong showing for Conservative voters in this election. In May's local elections in Wigan, Labour secured 42 seats, Reform 25, and the Conservatives won none. In the last general election in Makerfield, the Conservatives finished third, behind Labour and Reform, with just over 10 percent of the vote.

Polling Insights and Potential Outcomes

Polling data suggests that the Makerfield by-election is effectively a two-horse race between Labour and Reform UK. The largest survey conducted for the campaign, by Opinium for Forward Democracy, indicates a narrow lead for Burnham. Based on a mixed-method survey of 543 local residents, Burnham leads Kenyon by five percentage points among voters most likely to cast a ballot. Among those rating themselves at least seven out of ten likely to vote, Burnham stands at 46 percent compared to Kenyon’s 41 percent. However, Kenyon’s share may be impacted by the 7 percent that Shepherd is projected to win for Restore Britain in its inaugural parliamentary appearance. The Conservatives are polling at a mere 2 percent.

Despite Labour's current lead in the by-election campaign, the constituency's long-term political trajectory may ultimately favor Reform UK. When respondents were asked about their voting intentions in a future general election, Reform UK led with 42 percent compared to Labour’s 34 percent, suggesting that Burnham’s personal appeal might be helping Labour outperform its national reputation. In May, Labour lost all eight of its local council seats in Makerfield to Reform. Tom de Grunwald, founder of Forward Democracy and StopReformUK.Vote, indicated that tactical voting could be crucial. He stated, 'If you live in Makerfield and you would normally vote Green, Liberal Democrat, or anyone else, and you don’t want Reform UK to win this seat, the maths is clear: Andy Burnham is the only candidate who can stop them.'

However, Bastani expressed skepticism that many Restore Britain supporters will ultimately return to Reform UK. He remarked, 'A lot of those voters now see Farage as part of the establishment,' adding that Restore Britain could exceed expectations on polling day, potentially splitting the far-right vote and benefiting Burnham. While he anticipates a Burnham victory, Bastani cautioned that the result should not overshadow the broader rise of Reform. 'I’d be surprised if Burnham didn’t win. But if Reform were running a stronger candidate, this could look very different. If Farage somehow managed to win a seat like this against someone with Burnham’s profile, it would rank among the most significant political upsets.'

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